MORGAN: Nenshi’s NDP’s declining popularity is attributed to its unwavering support for the Ottawa
Polls show Smith at 50% vs. NDP’s dismal 37%—Albertans crave provincial defiance, not Ottawa’s yes-men.
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi has called on all members of the Alberta legislature to sign a pledge denouncing Alberta independence.
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi has called on all members of the Alberta legislature to sign a pledge denouncing Alberta independence.WS/David Wiechnik
Cory Morgan
Cory Morgan
Published on:
08 Feb 2026, 5:30 am
The United Conservative Party (UCP) government under Premier Danielle Smith has made plenty of errors that an adept opposition party could have exploited. The Alberta Health Services procurement scandal should have been gold for the NDP, who oppose any form of healthcare reform and private contracting, yet they couldn’t get the issue to grow legs. Internal caucus discontent led to two UCP MLAs sitting as independent members, but the NDP couldn’t widen the cracks in the division. On the budgetary front, the UCP has posted deficits, which could have given the opposition space to campaign on fiscal responsibility, but they failed to do so.

Legacy media and left-leaning political pundits carried as much water for Nenshi’s NDP as they could. They accused Smith of banning books when pornography was removed from children’s libraries and claimed children’s lives would be put at risk if boys were prevented from participating in girls’ sports. They pumped the tires for disgraced former MLA Lukaszuk’s “Forever Canadian” petition stunt and lent false credibility to the union-inspired flurry of recall initiatives filed against over 20 MLAs. Lukaszuk’s petition is all but forgotten, and the recall efforts are failing dismally.

Naheed Nenshi has led the NDP since June of 2024. He has held a seat in the legislature since June of 2025 and sat as the leader of the opposition in for a full fall session. This should be the honeymoon phase for a fresh, new opposition leader. If there is any time for the NDP to gain ground, it would be during Nenshi’s first couple of years in office.

The results are in, and it’s looking rather dismal for Nenshi and the democratic socialists of the NDP. A Leger poll conducted between January 23-26 found the UCP to be climbing in the polls, while the NDP are sinking. The Smith government commands 50% support compared to 37% for Nenshi’s struggling party, and seat projections based on the latest numbers indicate the NDP would lose several urban seats were an election held today.

The same polling finds a majority of Albertans aren't happy with the direction the province is going, yet they aren't willing to consider the NDP's leadership to change the direction. Albertans aren't necessarily thrilled with Smith, but they will take her over Nenshi.

People are voting with their wallets, too. The UCP raised $9.3 million in 2025, while the NDP garnered $6.3 million. Union rage over the back-to-work order for the teachers didn’t translate into party donations. I guess a 12% raise wasn’t enough to encourage Alberta’s woe-begotten educators to fund the NDP.

So, with the NDP being granted so much opportunity, what’s holding them back aside from Nenshi’s lack of charm?

The answer is federalism.

Not so much in that the NDP should be embracing independence, but in that they don’t appear to be a party willing to stand up to Ottawa on Alberta’s behalf.

Unity has been a top issue since the last federal election kept the Liberals in power. The Alberta independence movement has blossomed, and while there may not yet be majority support for provincial independence, it is all but assured that a referendum on the issue will be held this fall.

While not all Albertans want to vote for independence, they do see Ottawa and the Liberal government as the greatest threat to Alberta’s wellbeing right now. They want to feel confident that the premier will put Alberta first, and Nenshi just can’t offer it.

The NDP under Rachel Notley’s premiership was tight with former prime minister Justin Trudeau. In fact, Notley even appeared a little besotted with him during public appearances together. Nenshi was only a little less doe-eyed when attending events with Trudeau while he was Calgary’s mayor. While Trudeau has thankfully ridden off into the sunset to pursue pop stars, the hangover of his tenure remains in Alberta, and those closely associated with him are not well received by Albertan voters. Carney may be brighter than Trudeau, but he is still perceived by Albertans as somebody to be guarded against. Alberta’s NDP doesn’t inspire confidence on that front.

Alberta’s NDP is still subservient to the federal party despite their decoupling of the memberships between the branches of the party. When push comes to shove, Nenshi must answer to the federal leader of the party according to their party constitution. Singh’s complete capitulation to Trudeau in parliament showed where the federal NDP stands on that front.

Premier Smith has masterfully played both sides when it comes to the independence movement in Alberta. She constantly reiterates that she wants Alberta to remain within Canada but has provided and supported the mechanism for triggering an independence referendum. Smith can make demands of the federal government and then point to the growth in support for independence when the feds shoot them down. She hasn’t put herself into the sovereigntist camp but has successfully placed herself in the role as a key defender of Alberta.

Nenshi will never gain ground unless he can convince Albertans he will put the interest of the province before that of the federal government. That’s a tall order for a man who tied himself so tightly to the Trudeau regime. He must find a way to distance himself from his staunch federalism while not appearing sympathetic to the independence movement. That may be impossible for him to do.

Unless Nenshi can figure it out, though, the UCP will continue to gain support no matter how many political gifts they offer to the NDP.