An interesting perspective. I can’t say I disagree with it.

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Alberta contains three roughly equal factions. There is a range of views within each faction, of course, but it is helpful to illustrate the factions by reference to their archetypal members.

Progressive federalists

This faction believes that Canada is the best country in the world, and any concession made in the interests of Alberta's freedom and prosperity will ruin the paradise they are busy building. They treasure the socialist Canada Health Act, the underperforming Canada Pension Plan, the Supreme Court of Canada, which "sanctifies" progressive laws they could not enact democratically, and the RCMP, which enforces Ottawa's agenda. They champion an extreme version of multiculturalism (including DEI: diversity, equity, and inclusion) fueled by massive unvetted immigration. (Some of these multi-culti fanatics are virulent anti-Semites.) They advance liberal drug policies and restrictive gun laws, genderwang in elementary schools, the criminalization of political dissent via "hate speech" laws, limitless Indian “reconciliation," and bottomless climate catastrophism. They have more ways to spend taxpayers' money on programs to "fix" the plethora of social and economic problems created by the above policies than any mere Auditor General can count. Progressive federalists are in the vast majority outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, but within Alberta, they exist only in the big cities and among the university-educated in smaller cities. They vote NDP and have powerful allies in Ottawa.

Conservative federalists

This faction opposes all or most of the agenda that progressive federalists wish to impose on Alberta. They recognize that Alberta has a distinct culture from the rest of Canada, and ostensibly seek to conserve it. They are quick to concede that Albertans have a right to be angry over the numerous legitimate grievances they have borne historically, and they do their best to try to isolate Alberta from the ill effects of progressive policies championed in most of the rest of Canada. They do not defend Canada as it is; however, they defend a hypothetical country that they hope Canada might become, somehow, someday. (No detailed and costed plan with timelines on how to get there yet, though.) They still have faith that Canada can be fixed.

Independents

This faction knows the score. We look at the other two factions and shake our heads in dismay. We see Canada's dysfunction not resulting from one bad Prime Minister or "nine bad laws:” our dismay is not due to a pipeline being blocked, or a gerrymandered equalization formula that strips wealth created by the hard work and sacrifice of Albertans to buy votes in Quebec and the Maritimes — all while having our freedom and prosperity stifled by the beneficiaries of our work and endowments. We understand that all of Alberta's problems stem from an impossible-to-rectify political imbalance which concentrates power in central Canada. We realize at this point that it is simpler and more direct to defend the hypothetical country that Alberta could become.

Noticing that Albertans divide into these three roughly equal factions helps to clarify matters. The first thing it clarifies is that independents are not a "fringe minority." The size of our faction is nothing to be ashamed of. We are as important in the political landscape as either of the other two factions — and our numbers and influence are growing. Even navel-gazing central Canada is beginning to take notice that the West wants out.

The second thing this division of the population of Alberta clarifies is that the federalist side is deeply divided. Half of the federalists disagree with just about every political principle and value that the other half of the federalist camp champions. The only thing they agree on is the fantasy of a united Canada. This is bizarre: politics really does make strange bedfellows. Progressives and conservatives who can't stand each other hold hands and sing Kumbaya under the banner of Canada. The unreason of it unmasks the pure emotion behind it.

Polls fluctuate and are usually biased in one way or another, but the above taxonomy tends to support the finding that, as things currently stand, federalists would win an independence referendum today by a two-thirds margin. Independents should not be discouraged, because politics is a game with an indefinite number of innings, and there is reason to believe that we will ultimately win. For one thing, all of the independents are concentrated within the governing party, and could readily flip it to their side. Momentum is building in that direction. That would bring institutional power, resources, and a professional communications strategy to the independence side. As importantly, federalists form an unstable coalition because they are divided on nearly every fundamental political principle and value. I refer to the federalist majority as the Sado-Masochist Coalition: the progressive wing (the Sadists) get a thrill out of punishing Alberta with their policies, and the conservative wing (the Masochists) are pleased to allow them to do so as long as they can negotiate over the form and severity that their next torture takes. A federalist is someone who believes that Alberta's future will be bright as soon as federalists can sort out their differences.

Conservative federalists are, in reality, much more closely aligned with independents than with progressive federalists. They just don't realize it yet. Conservative federalists and independents tend to agree that progressive federalists border on insanity and moral derangement; they share most of the same political principles and values; they have the same diagnosis of the problems facing Alberta. They only differ over tactics, patience, and their level of tolerance for pain. That's why conservative federalists and independents coexist comfortably within the governing party. Indeed, independents are mainly conservative federalists who have finally had enough of the torture and can see no end to it within Canada. Our numbers cannot fail to grow as long as we keep pushing the Overton window. We might not win the first referendum, or the second, but given time and effort, ultimately the pain and disappointment of Confederation should swing the vote our way.

The prospects for Alberta independence are not all favourable, however. As irrational as it may be, there is no telling how many Charles Adlers and Marilyn Gladus there are among the conservative federalists, who will mysteriously switch to the Sadist wing of the federalist side. Add a large enough influx of federalist immigrants to Alberta from the benighted parts of Canada, seeking job opportunities, and the Overton window for independence could close very quickly. (Perhaps this explains why Premier Smith is now pandering to the multicultural vote, dressing up in Khalistani costumes and boasting that the Khalistani festival in Calgary is bigger than the Stampede. This courting of the progressive federalist camp has prompted me to start calling her Danielle Erskine-Smith, and to predict that she will meet the same fate.)

Mark Steyn says the problem with Canadian conservatives is that they pre-concede on every issue, and from the get-go, we have seen worrying signs of this happening with the leader of the governing party. Many "conservatives" would rather compromise on their political principles and values than try new tactics in the fight against creeping progressivism. It is beyond the scope of this essay to adduce all of the ways in which Danielle Smith has betrayed her followers in the years since she betrayed the Wildrose Party. However, it is worth giving a short account of why Albertans should not be the least bit impressed by Premier Smith's self-proclaimed signature achievement on behalf of the federalist side.

I won't make the obvious case that we are no closer to a pipeline to the West Coast today than we were in 2019 or 2023. Imagine a world in which a pipeline west does get built according to Premier Smith's cherished MOU, upon which she is staking her political future. How does that actually benefit Albertans? The original and only rationale for building a pipeline west, particularly in the wake of Trump's “fifty-first state" jokes, was to supply Asian markets where we could get the world price for our oil rather than remaining captive to the American monopsony and having to sell it at a $10-15 per barrel discount. But a pipeline west built in accordance with the MOU does not achieve this. We might get world prices for the oil that goes through the pipeline west, but at the cost of satisfying all of Mark Carney's preconditions: Pathways CCUS ($20-30 billion); an escalating industrial carbon tax on every barrel of oil, including those sold to the USA; a First Nations "equity interest" (paid for by taxpayers); methane reductions; endless consultations; and now a new one — giving BC a "substantial financial benefit." Added together, these preconditions will add far more to the production and distribution costs of Alberta oil than we can hope to gain from the increased price we would get from Asia. The juice is not worth the squeeze. Alberta would be much better off pipeline-wise as an independent nation, simply selling all of our oil to the USA at a discount, but removing all of the unproductive grifters from the equation.

Premier Smith was snookered and duped in her negotiations with Carney. She gave everything away and got nothing in return. She staked her political future on a pipeline west, which consequently became an end in itself rather than a means to higher profits for Albertans. It irks independents to see her gloating about this bill of goods. It irks us that our Premier has jumped with both feet into the progressive climate catastrophe / net-zero nonsense to justify her loss of economic sanity. If Smith is so easily swayed, independents have our work cut out for us to make sure our conservative federalist friends see the light before they vote on independence.

Grant A. Brown has a DPhil in political philosophy from Oxford University and an LL.B. from the University of Alberta. Now retired, his career includes teaching at the University of Lethbridge, practicing law in Edmonton, and running a B&B in Stratford, Ontario. He returned to Alberta in 2022 to support Alberta independence.

https://www.westernstandard.news/opinion/brown-politics-makes-strange-bedfellows-why-alberta-independents-might-ultimately-succeed-and-how-we-could-easily-fail/73866