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Interesting read from Tracy Schuchart on X, about Venezuela oil: https://renegaderesources.pro/p/uninvestable-why-big-oil-is-apprehensive
I'm not a subscriber so couldn't read the whole thing, but here is the summary she posted on X:
Trump promised $100 billion in oil investments to rebuild Venezuela.
On January 9th, he got oil executives in a room and got a reality check instead.
ExxonMobil CEO to Trump's face: "Venezuela today is uninvestable."
ConocoPhillips CEO: We're owed $12 billion from the last time we trusted Venezuela.
Trump: "Good writeoff."
CEO: "It's already been written off."
Here's what nobody's saying out loud:
Chavez claimed 300 billion barrels of reserves in 2011. Never independently audited. OPEC just publishes what members report. Actual recoverable reserves? Probably 80 to 110 billion. Maybe.
Venezuela owes $60 billion in arbitration awards from seizing foreign assets. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips got burned in 2007. Assets nationalized. Years of legal battles. Billions awarded. Venezuela hasn't paid.
And now Trump wants them back for round three.
The regulatory reforms needed? Constitutional amendments. Legislative action. 3 to 5 years minimum.
The timeline problem? Trump has 36 months left. Oil companies think in 10 to 20 year payback windows.
Nobody's betting $100 to $200 billion on that.
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Attended the Queensland presentation in Calgary. The venue was packed to the point where they had to stop allowing people in and the lineup outside went around the building! Some folks waited two hours to sign.
