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It's time to go
Looks like there will be a separation referendum in Alberta in 2026. As a risk manager, it is important to weigh tail risk events like this.
Alberta’s separation would create a fiscal shock of historic proportions for the country. The province is by far the biggest net contributor to the country amounting to roughly $14 billion annually to federal coffers, money that underpins programs like equalization and major transfers.
Removing this contribution would force Ottawa to either run significantly larger deficits or impose tax hikes to maintain current spending levels. Equalization alone would become politically and financially untenable: Quebec’s $13.3 billion entitlement would consume nearly the entire remaining envelope, leaving other recipient provinces with nothing or triggering deep proportional cuts. For Atlantic Canada and Manitoba, where equalization represents 15–20% of total budgets, this would be devastating.
Beyond transfers, Alberta is an economic powerhouse. It accounts for 15% of Canada’s GDP—about $474 billion of a $3.1 trillion economy—and drives 32% of national exports, including over 91% of Canada’s oil exports and 60% of its natural gas. In 2024, Alberta shipped roughly $183 billion in goods abroad, with petroleum products alone worth $124 billion. Over 2007–2019, the oil and gas sector contributed $53 billion in federal revenues, averaging $4–6 billion per year.
Losing this economic engine would shrink Canada’s tax base, weaken the dollar, and erode investor confidence and the ripple effects would be severe: higher borrowing costs from potential credit downgrades, reduced fiscal capacity for health care and infrastructure, and a structural hit to Canada’s global competitiveness.
In short, Alberta’s departure would not just be a political crisis, it would dismantle a cornerstone of Canada’s economy, leaving the federation smaller, a lot poorer, and far less stable.
https://x.com/MPelletierCIO/status/2005342384276865326
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Carney gave Ukraine $2,500,000,000 or $2.5 billion dollars yesterday, but in reality it was Alberta that gave them the money because eastern Canada has no money.
Separation is the only way.
The illustration below was drawn more than 100 years ago, click to enlarge it
https://x.com/CoryBMorgan/status/1907140192705679690
Jeff Rath is so desperate to name drop and be the big guy on campus that he doesn't seem to understand that all his talk about the Trump Administration and the US supporting Alberta independence is going to be twisted by the media machine to do to the Albertan fence sitters what Carney did to Eastern voters with his "elbows up" anti-Trump narrative. Rath thinks "hey look at me I'm getting all this attention from the US for Alberta" but just having Trump's name anywhere near the independence movement is going to bite us in the butt. Thanks Jeff! Hope you enjoy your name-dropping and I pray it doesn't TRUCK us - but at the very least it's going to give us a lot of work to undo the conflation!
